All month long, our racing guru David Scoggan is blogging LIVE from the track! Check back here regularly for a dose of Dave’s wit and whimsy.
Sitting in the IMS Media Center awaiting the inevitable next round of precipitation, I figured it’s time to make those prognostications that we types are supposed to make. So, here goes.
It seems that Chevy has a bit of a horsepower advantage over Honda, as seen in the qualifying results, but the race is just as much about handling and fuel mileage. Even though countless practice laps have been turned in race trim, the weather conditions of whatever day the 500 is contested (and given the forecast, it could be multiple days!) and the new track surface — don’t call it a “sealer”, it’s a “PENETRANT” — could also be a confusing factor. If it’s hot and windy, that means the teams will be chasing their tails trying to find the sweet spot in their cars.
Potential winners? Well, the obvious choices are the entirety of Team Penske as any one of their four drivers (Pagenaud, Power, Helio, Newgarden) can succeed and Ed Carpenter has both the pace and experience to match them. I don’t think that the ECR duo of Spencer Pigot and Ed Jones have the ability to pull of the win, but they will be fast.
You can’t discount Andretti Autosports and their satellite team Harding-Steinbrenner as the flag bearers for the Honda camp, along with Sebastein Bourdais of Dale Coyne Racing. Colton Herta has been blindingly fast and brave for a rookie and he could become the youngest Indy 500 winner in history with a little luck. Alexander Rossi has consistently been the fastest Andretti runner this month, while Marco Andretti would be a great story if he won on the 50th anniversary of his grandfather Mario’s lone Indy victory. Ryan Hunter-Reay has had a disappointing month, but could turn things around on race day.
Never leave out Scott Dixon or Tony Kanaan, two former winners who didn’t factor into the qualifying drama but should definitely be in the hunt. Dixon and his Ganassi Honda are overdue for a second 500 win and Kanaan’s Foyt Chevy was in the hunt last year before a cut tire derailed his effort. Teammates Takuma Sato and Graham Rahal always runs strong in the race and James Hinchcliffe could factor in if he can survive his last row starting perch
If I had to make a pick — no wagering, please — I would like to see either Graham Rahal or Marco Andretti win because both would be fantastic stories for the future of the series, but my head says that it’s Ed Carpenter’s time. He’s been close enough to taste the milk and I think this year he breaks through — whenever the race is run!
